On eight scheduled dates each year, the Bank of Canada announces the setting for the overnight rate target in a press release explaining the factors behind the decision. Four times a year, Governing Council presents the Monetary Policy Report, the Bank’s base-case projection for inflation and growth in the Canadian economy, and its assessment of risks, BoC
On July 30, 2025, the Bank of Canada will release its next interest rate decision alongside a new Monetary Policy Report.
BUZZ PREDICTION – Most economists and market watchers expect the Bank to hold its policy rate steady at 2.75%, as inflation pressures remain persistent, particularly core inflation, which continues to hover above the Bank’s 2% target. Although headline inflation has eased to just under 2%, core measures such as CPI-median are still too elevated for policymakers to feel confident about lowering rates.
Recent data, including stronger-than-expected job numbers and sticky service-sector inflation, have significantly reduced the likelihood of a July rate cut. In fact, the probability of any rate cut this month has dropped to near zero, with most analysts now pointing to the fall or winter of 2025 as the earliest possible window for easing. At the same time, the Bank faces competing risks as slowing consumer demand and rising unemployment suggest the economy is softening, but global uncertainty, especially around trade and tariffs, continues to complicate the outlook.
The Monetary Policy Report released alongside the decision will provide important updates on the Bank’s projections for growth, inflation, and financial stability, as well as a clearer signal of what may come in the months ahead. All eyes will be on how the Governing Council interprets recent economic data and whether it hints at a shift in tone moving into the final quarter of the year.
What does this mean for Home Buyers, Home Sellers and REALTORS®?
For Home Buyers:
Waiting for lower rates? Here’s why acting now could be smarter.
REALTORS® can use the Bank’s expected rate hold at 2.75% to explain that interest rates are no longer climbing, but they’re also not dropping anytime soon. Many buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for cheaper borrowing costs. However, with rate cuts unlikely until late 2025 or beyond, this creates a window of opportunity:
- Less competition from hesitant buyers means more negotiating power.
- Sellers are more flexible, offering price reductions or incentives.
- Locking in a fixed rate now avoids exposure to future rate volatility.
Buyers should be reminded that the “perfect timing” rarely exists, but entering the market when others are holding back can lead to long-term gains.
For Home Sellers:
Low inventory and steady rates could give you the edge.
Sellers can take advantage of a stable-rate environment to attract buyers who have adjusted to current borrowing costs and are motivated to move before prices or competition rise again.
Strategic Messaging for REALTORS®:
- Now is a window of stability in an otherwise volatile market.
- The Bank of Canada’s message is clear, inflation remains sticky, and waiting for cheaper mortgages could mean missing today’s buyer/seller balance.
- There’s confidence in the market, just not certainty. And confidence is what creates real opportunity.
Proactive REALTOR® Moves:
- Host buyer education sessions explaining mortgage rate trends and how to shop smart in a flat-rate market.
- Encourage sellers to list now with messaging like “beat the fall rush” or “capitalize on low inventory.”
- Partner with mortgage brokers to offer buyers pre-approvals at today’s fixed rates with flexible lock-ins.
- Create market insight reports using BoC data to show you’re an informed, strategic advisor, not just a salesperson.
It’s time to get on the move!
To learn more, visit BoC or speak with your Financial Expert, Mortgage Broker or Mortgage Agent to re-qualify for your home buying and home selling journey.
